US Economy: May 2025 Data and Outlook

Originally published 2025-05-26. Translation and editorial review: 14 October 2026. Market figures refer to the original reporting period.

🇺🇸 Summary of the latest US economic figures for May 2025.

Economic indicators	Latest information	Trends and Impacts
GDP (Q1/2025)	shrank -0.3%	reflects the economic slowdown. Especially due to a decrease in government spending and an increase in imports, bea.gov bea.gov
Inflation rate (CPI)	2.3% (April 2025)	is at its lowest level since February 2021 but remains above the Fed's target of 2% bea.gov+7USAFacts+7Trading Economics+7 bea.gov usafacts.org
Fed Interest Rate	4.25%–4.50%	The Fed maintains interest rates at this level to control inflation. Despite pressure to cut interest rates, U.S. Bank+2Trading Economics+2Reuters+2 tradingeconomics.com
Unemployment rate	4.2% (April 2025)	has been in a range of 4.0%–4.2% since May 2024, indicating a relatively stable labor market. Investing.com+17Bureau of Labor Statistics+17USAFacts+17 investing.com www.bls.gov
Non-agricultural employment (NFP)	increased by 177,000 positions (April 2025)	is 152,000 higher than the 12-month average. Bureau of Labor Statistics+1Bureau of Labor Statistics+1 www.bls.gov
Trade Balance	Deficit $131.4 billion (Jan 2025)	Highest deficit on record Reflecting a sharp increase in imports, Trading Economics tradingeconomics.com
Retail sales	decreased 0.1% (Apr 2025)	, although down slightly from the previous month, is up 4.7% compared to last year. Census.gov census.gov
Manufacturing PMI (S&P Global)	52.3 (May 2025)	Highest in 3 months, indicating expansion of the manufacturing sector. Trading. Economics+10U.S. Bank+10Bureau of Labor Statistics+10 www.usbank.com
Consumer Confidence (CB Index)	86.0 (April 2025)	has fallen for 5 consecutive months, the lowest in nearly 5 years, reflecting consumer concerns. advisorperspectives.com advisorperspectives.com
Crude Oil Stock	increased by 1.328 million barrels (May 2025)	Rising stocks may put pressure on oil prices in the short term. Investing.com+1Trading Economics+1 investing.com www.investing.com
Fed Balance Sheet	decreased from $8.0 trillion (Sept. 2023) to $7.5 trillion (Mar. 2024).	represents a reduction in the Federal Reserve's asset holdings. www.federalreserve.gov

🔍 Analysis of US economic trends.

• Economic slowdown: GDP contraction in the first quarter of 2025 indicates an economic slowdown. This may be the result of a decrease in government spending and an increase in imports.

• Inflation is low: Although inflation has fallen to 2.3%, it remains above the Fed's 2% target, which may allow the Fed to maintain interest rates at current levels.

• Stable Labor Market: The unemployment rate at 4.2% and employment growth indicate a labor market that remains strong. Even though the overall economy is slowing down

• Declining Consumer Confidence: A continued decline in consumer confidence may affect future consumer spending. which is an important factor for economic growth.

• Trade Deficit High: The trade deficit at record levels may be the result of rising imports and slowing exports. This may affect the value of the dollar and future trade policy.