China's Economy: May 2025 Data and Outlook

Originally published 2025-05-26. Translation and editorial review: 14 October 2026. Market figures refer to the original reporting period.

Summary of the latest Chinese economic figures (data as of May 2025)

Economic indicators	Latest information	Trends and Impacts
GDP (Q1/2025)	grew by 5.4%.	Growth exceeds forecasts. This is due to strong exports, however, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. due to trade tensions with the United States and problems in the real estate sector
Inflation rate (CPI)	decreased by 0.1% compared to the previous year.	The fall in inflation reflects weak domestic demand. and may lead to the risk of deflation in the future.
Policy interest rate	reduced to 3.00% (1 year) and 3.50% (5 years) .	The People's Bank of China cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, analysts believe that this cut may not be enough to stimulate domestic demand.
Unemployment rate	5.1% (April 2025)	The unemployment rate decreased slightly from the previous month. This indicates that the labor market remains stable.
Trade Balance (April 2025)	Surplus 689.99 billion yuan .	Strong exports help the trade balance remain in surplus. Despite the increase in imports
Retail sales	increased by 5.1% compared to the previous year.	Retail sales growth slowed from the previous month. This reflects consumer confidence that has not yet fully recovered.
Manufacturing PMI	49.0 (April 2025)	The PMI index is below the 50 threshold, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector. This may be a result of weak demand and trade uncertainty.
Consumer Confidence	87.5 (Mar 2025)	Consumer confidence remains low. Reflects concerns about the economic situation and future income.
Crude Oil Stock	increased to 1.12 billion barrels.	An increase in crude oil stocks may put pressure on oil prices in the short term. and reflects weak demand in the industrial sector.
Central Bank Balance Sheet	decreased slightly from the previous month.	Balance sheet depletion reflects efforts to control liquidity and financial stability.

🔍 Analysis of Chinese economic trends in the second half of 2025.

• Unsustainable Growth: Although first quarter GDP expanded 5.4%, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. due to trade tensions with the United States and problems in the real estate sector

• Deflation Risk: A fall in inflation reflects weak domestic demand. This could lead to the risk of deflation in the future.

• Easier Monetary Policy: The People's Bank of China cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, analysts expect the cuts may not be enough to stimulate domestic demand.

• Weak Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence remains low. Reflects concerns about the economic situation and future income.

• Contracting Manufacturing Sector: The Manufacturing PMI index is below the 50 threshold, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector. This may be the result of weak demand and trade uncertainty.

“The Chinese economy in 2025 faces both domestic and international challenges. Appropriate adjustment and policy will be key to maintaining long-term stability and growth.”

#Chinese Economy2025 #Chinese economic trends #Chinese Economic Analysis #ProjectCWF