Thailand's 2025 GDP Forecast Cut: Economic Risks in Context

Originally published 2025-05-21. Translation and editorial review: 14 October 2026. Market figures refer to the original reporting period.

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDB) or "NESDB" released the Thai economic report for the first quarter of 2025, stating that GDP expanded at the level. 3.1% compared to the same period last year. However, the GDP growth forecast for the full year has been revised down from 2.8% to 1.8%, reflecting concerns over negative factors at the global level that put pressure on the Thai economic recovery trend.

Main factors that cause the forecast to be revised down.

1. The world economy is slower than expected.

   • Slowdown in the export sector Especially to major markets like China and the United States. Affecting the industrial and production sectors of Thailand

   • Fluctuating oil and raw material prices from the uncertainty in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

2. US fiscal policy

   • The US government's increase in import taxes on certain products. Affecting Thai products and competitive ability

   • Currency fluctuations due to the fact that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has not yet sent a signal to reduce interest rates.

3. Domestic consumption is weak.

   • Household purchasing power has not yet fully recovered. This is due to the burden of household debt and the continuously high cost of living.

   • The Consumer Confidence Index is still at a fragile level.

Economic outlook for the rest of the year

Although the first quarter expanded at a satisfactory level. But the next period of growth still faces many challenges. both the slowdown of the service sector Private investment has not yet fully recovered. and accelerating the disbursement of the government budget that is still delayed.

Tourism sector Although there is a trend of continued recovery from the number of Chinese and ASEAN tourists But it still cannot fully compensate for the contraction in the export and industrial sectors.

Strategic analysis

• The government needs to accelerate aggressive economic stimulus measures, especially supporting SMEs, accelerating infrastructure investment. and restoring confidence in agriculture and labor.

• Fiscal and financial stability management must be carried out in conjunction with short-term measures. Otherwise, additional economic shocks may occur in the following year.

• Annual budget preparation 2026 will play an important role in determining the medium-term trend of the Thai economy.

Summary

The downgrading of the Thai GDP forecast in 2025 to only 1.8% is considered an important warning sign of the fragility of the Thai economy in a situation where external factors have a higher influence than expected. Policy responses from both the public and private sectors are therefore necessary. to restore confidence and create a foundation for long-term sustainable growth.

#Thai Economy #GDP2025 #ProjectCWF